EACH NRL TEAM'S BEST AND WORST CASE FINISHES FOR 2023

In this blog I will tell you the best and worst case finishing of teams in the NRL who have a shot at September Footy. These are in total 11 teams.

With no team locked in of their final position on the NRL ladder, there is plenty on the line even for clubs guaranteed to be playing September football

Several clubs have put themselves in position to be masters of their own destiny, but others will be relying on results going their way and will no doubt be keeping a nervous eye on the ladder as they go. 

Penrith Panthers (currently 1st)

• Best case finish: 1st
• Worst case finish: 3rd
• Remaining fixtures: v Eels (H), v Cowboys (H)

 Penrith face two sides out of the top eight, Parramatta and North Queensland, and both at home, needing just one win to secure a home final. 

 

Brisbane Broncos (currently 2nd)

• Best case finish: 1st
• Worst case finish: 3rd
• Remaining fixtures: v Raiders (A), v Storm (H)

Brisbane need one win to secure a top two finish and a home final at Suncorp Stadium, given their far superior points differential. Brisbane haven't finished the regular season inside the top two since 2015.

 

Warriors (currently 3rd)

• Best case finish: 1st
• Worst case finish: 5th
• Remaining fixtures: v Dragons (H), v Dolphins (A)

The Warriors look set for a top four finish with two favorable match ups against the Dragons and Dolphins to end the regular season. The numbers show they remain an outside chance at a top two finish – albeit a highly unlikely result given the form of the Panthers and Broncos – while they also could slip down to fifth should they fail to win either of their last two matches and have other results from the Storm and Sharks go against them. An away trip in Week 1 of the finals to either Penrith or Brisbane appears on the cards for Andrew Webster's men.

 

Melbourne Storm (currently 4th)

• Best case finish: 3rd
• Worst case finish: 6th
• Remaining fixtures: v Titans (H), v Broncos (A)

Melbourne's top four chances remain in their own hands with a winnable game at home against the Titans in Round 26 followed by a trip north to face the Broncos in Round 27. With the Sharks playing off against the Knights and Raiders to end the year, the Storm won't be officially locked in to the top four until after their game against the Titans, but they could enter Round 27 with a second chance secured.

 

Cronulla Sharks (currently 5th)

• Best case finish: 3rd
• Worst case finish: 9th
• Remaining fixtures: v Knights (A), v Raiders (H)

It's an intriguing end to the season for Cronulla who could still technically miss the eight, as well as possibly secure a top four finish. A win over the Knights would confirm their place in this year's finals series, with the prospect of a repeat clash against either Newcastle or Canberra in Week 1 of the finals a real possibility. 

 

Canberra Raiders (currently 6th)

• Best case finish: 3rd
• Worst case finish: 9th
• Remaining fixtures: v Broncos (H), v Sharks (A)

Having secured an important two points against the Bulldogs, Canberra's finals hopes are now in their own hands as they face arguably the hardest two-game stretch of any team to end the year. Much like Cronulla, the Raiders can still move into the top four with results going their way, but a -108 points differential heading into Round 26 means they're more likely to feature in an Elimination Final come Week 1 of the finals. Only two teams in the premiership era have played finals football with a points differential of -100 or more. 

 Newcastle Knights (currently 7th)

• Best case finish: 4th
• Worst case finish: 9th
• Remaining fixtures: v Sharks (H), v Dragons (A)

Riding a seven-game winning streak, Newcastle can't officially wrap up a finals berth until Round 27 (unless the Cowboys and Roosters both lose in Round 26) but they do appear on track for a return to the finals arena regardless in 2023. The Knights' draw against the Sea Eagles in Mudgee earlier this year could prove to be an incredibly valuable extra point on the final ladder, entering the penultimate round of the regular season three points clear of the Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Roosters.

South Sydney Rabbitohs (currently 8th)

• Best case finish: 6th
• Worst case finish: 11th
• Remaining fixtures: BYE, v Roosters (H)

Comprehensively beaten by a rampant Knights side at home, it's now a very simple equation for Jason Demetriou's men if they want to play finals football – rest up this week and beat the Roosters next week. Technically, South Sydney could still make the eight without a win should the Tricolors fall to Wests Tigers and the Cowboys remain winless over the final two games, but it appears far more likely that a sudden-death shoutout between the traditional Sydney rivals is looming for Round 27 when they meet at Accor Stadium. And with Latrell ruled out of the match with a one game match ban, which rules him out of the must-win game against the Roosters.

North Queensland Cowboys (currently 9th)

• Best case finish: 6th
• Worst case finish: 12th
• Remaining fixtures: v Dolphins (A), v Panthers (A)

On the outside looking in after their loss at home to the Sharks in Round 25. Mathematically, the Cowboys could move into eighth position as early as this weekend should they beat the Dolphins by 62 points (which would take them above the Rabbitohs) but it appears far more likely they'll need to win both of their remaining games to make the eight. North Queensland fans will be hoping Penrith have the minor premiership wrapped up this weekend before their Round 27 clash.

Sydney Roosters (currently 10th)

• Best case finish: 6th
  
• Worst case finish: 12th
• Remaining fixtures: v Wests Tigers (H), v Rabbitohs (A)

 Trent Robinson's side have roared back into contention with three straight wins and they'll fancy their chances at extending that to four with the last-placed Wests Tigers on the schedule this week. Their -62 points differential is a problem (which could be somewhat rectified this week) but their final round game against South Sydney is shaping as the deciding factor. It's also worth noting that should the Cowboys win their last two games and maintain their superior for-and-against over the Roosters, it would be them that sneaks into eighth spot  even if the Sydney club win their final two games. 

Parramatta Eels (currently 11th)

• Best case finish: 8th
• Worst case finish: 12th
• Remaining fixtures: v Panthers (A), BYE

Beat the two-time defending premiers at home this week and then hope for the best. Mathematically, the Eels are still in the hunt for September football, but they'll need some results to go their way. A bye in Round 27 guarantees them two points, so a 30-point total could still be enough if they can beat the Panthers this week. Conversely, the Sea Eagles' favorable run home could see them jump ahead of the Eels into 11th if they can't beat Penrith this week.

 If you are looking for all 17 team's best and worst case finishes go to the link.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2023/08/21/each-teams-best-and-worst-case-finishes-for-2023/